Iowa polls, “expectations” were a pale shadow of the truth
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Iowa polls, “expectations” were a pale shadow of the truth

For months, the political media have had nothing to talk about but polls and expectations. Yesterday reality crashed the party in Iowa, revealing the vacuity of the polls and the “expectations game.” Let’s examine how poll/expectations-based “analysis” differs from reality-based analysis. The polls were totally off Let’s compare two recent Iowa polls, the Quinnipiac poll done Sunday and…

Six short words explain why Donald Trump quit Fox News debate
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Six short words explain why Donald Trump quit Fox News debate

The Donald Trump campaign’s 271-word statement about skipping the next debate is short, clear, and free of jargon. But it could have been much shorter, only six words: “I am afraid of Megyn Kelly.” I believe his strategic calculation was that this debate would not help him — people already know who he is — but that tangling again…

Tweetable highlights of National Review’s Donald Trump Takedown
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Tweetable highlights of National Review’s Donald Trump Takedown

Conservative publication National Review invited prominent conservatives to explain why they’re against Donald Trump. I’ve never seen so many distinguished people so angry in such a florid and entertaining way. For wit to spread, it must be tweetable. So I made this little compilation for you. Have fun. General insults [tweetthis]We can talk about whether [Trump]…

The Expectations Game is gibberish in the Iowa caucuses
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The Expectations Game is gibberish in the Iowa caucuses

Sometimes the political media gets so tangled up in its own underwear that it’s comical. Musings about expectations don’t qualify as news — they should be marked “for entertainment purposes only.” That’s why I must ridicule Kathie Obradovich’s recent article in the Des Moines Register (also reprinted into the Boston Globe). There are candidate positions. There is…

Donald Trump endgame: The Trumpist Party

Donald Trump endgame: The Trumpist Party

Analysts predict not only what will happen next, but what will happen after that. Here’s my prediction: after losing in 2016, Donald Trump will form his own party, the Trumpist Party. Trump is divisive Trump thrills white men and scares nearly everybody else. Donald Trump is a hero for white, working-class men. As Kathleen Parker writes in the Washington Post,…

Upcoming Donald Trump policy proposals

Upcoming Donald Trump policy proposals

I recently got access to the secret playbook Donald Trump uses to generate a new, ever more outrageous policy every eight or nine days. I’ve used it to predict the next six weeks of Trump news stories: International loser database. “As soon as I get in office, the State Department will begin tracking losers in every governments on earth,”…

How the candidates would mindlessly trash your privacy

How the candidates would mindlessly trash your privacy

Last night’s CNN Debate was about how the Republican candidates are “tougher” than Democrats. But look close. Tougher always means violating somebody’s rights, including yours. While the debate moderators asked about the mass collection of phone records, they glossed right over the implicit privacy violations in many of the candidates’ proposal. Only one candidate — Rand…