Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has vowed not to consider any Supreme Court nominee that President Obama makes. My mathematical analysis shows why: by waiting, McConnell gets a 50% chance of a conservative court, and a 35% chance of an extremely conservative court, for many years to come. This decision is even more important than it…
Antonin Scalia, the Supreme Court Justice who died Saturday, had a reputation as a fierce, incisive, and sarcastic defender of conservative values. Read his most famous opinions and arguments and you’ll find his rhetorical secret: passive voice statements that obscure the boogiemen he rails against. As my tribute to Justice Scalia, here are some quotes…
WASHINGTON, August 1, 2016. As we wind down from the nominating conventions of both parties, America faces the most unusual election scenario in decades. Hillary Clinton, fresh from a bruising fight to win the Democratic nomination, faces Mitt Romney, chosen by the Republicans at a brokered convention, and independent Michael Bloomberg. And it all began on…
The 2016 candidates for president have babbled on so extensively and gotten so much media coverage that it all just blends together. So I asked myself: if I let my brain get tired and stupid, what sound bite remains? Here’s what stuck to my brain (sorted by their results in Iowa). Regrettably, when many people…
For months, the political media have had nothing to talk about but polls and expectations. Yesterday reality crashed the party in Iowa, revealing the vacuity of the polls and the “expectations game.” Let’s examine how poll/expectations-based “analysis” differs from reality-based analysis. The polls were totally off Let’s compare two recent Iowa polls, the Quinnipiac poll done Sunday and…
The Donald Trump campaign’s 271-word statement about skipping the next debate is short, clear, and free of jargon. But it could have been much shorter, only six words: “I am afraid of Megyn Kelly.” I believe his strategic calculation was that this debate would not help him — people already know who he is — but that tangling again…
Conservative publication National Review invited prominent conservatives to explain why they’re against Donald Trump. I’ve never seen so many distinguished people so angry in such a florid and entertaining way. For wit to spread, it must be tweetable. So I made this little compilation for you. Have fun. General insults [tweetthis]We can talk about whether [Trump]…
When you hear an outlandish poll result, you first thought may be, “Wow, people are stupid.” You’d be wrong. Blame the pollsters and the people who publicize their spurious results, not the supposed “voters” they contacted. In the last month, we’ve heard these unbelievable poll results: 30% of likely Republican voters think we should bomb Agrabah, the fictional…
Death is a fact of life. Sayings like “rest in peace” and “our thoughts and prayers are with the victims” are euphemisms: they enable us to go on without thinking about death. Not thinking about death can help us cope, but let’s not imagine that we’re actually saying anything when we say these things. I’ve been thinking…