Donald Trump says he is a great negotiator. But he’s actually a brinksman — a master of brinksmanship. This works great in business, where the government can bail you out. But if you crash the government, there’s no one to save you. I’ve studied negotiation with the Harvard Negotiation Project (the originators of “Getting to…
My heart goes out to the people of the UK in the wake of the Brexit vote. They face the uncertain task of navigating a post-European future with, very soon, a new prime minister to succeed David Cameron. Turmoil and suffering are inevitable. But of course, here in America, we think only of ourselves (America…
When our blood is boiling, we love to cheer on our causes and shout down the opposition. Is this you? “Guns — bad! Gun control — good! U.S. House of Representatives staging a sit-in to get a vote — very good! Periscope streaming to C-SPAN — great!” But hang on a second — have you really…
I’m angry and sad about the attack in Orlando, like every other thinking person today. But I’m trying to think long-term. Donald Trump isn’t. What’s most at risk in a time of crisis is rational thought. We become prone to knee-jerk, short-term thinking. Leaders must be smarter than that. Donald Trump is not such a…
Policy statements by Hillary Clinton will only alienate the voters she needs. As a result, she won’t talk policy, and of course, Donald Trump won’t either. Which means we’re in for five months of empty talk. Imagine for a moment that you are strategist for the Hillary Clinton campaign. Your base is mainstream Democrats and…
Hillary Clinton has enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination, but Bernie Sanders won’t go away. Does he think he can win? Nah. But the spotlight — and the negotiating leverage that comes with it — are too much fun to give up. As Hillary Clinton and Democratic leaders see it, it’s time for Sanders to go away…
Fixing the climate has a cost. So does failing to fix it. Both costs are huge, but if you believe that climate change is a real phenomenon, then the human and economic costs of inaction are staggering. What justifies failing to act? My analysis reveals that the explanation that many Republicans stand behind — that climate change…
Now that Trump has sewn up the Republican nomination, should conservatives run a different candidate, like Mitt Romney, as a third-party candidate? Based on my analysis, yes. In addition to preserving their concept of the party, such a run actually improves the likelihood of a positive outcome (and decreases the likelihood of a disaster) for…
I’ve said that true analysts find bigger truths when they’re wrong. Smart people predicted Donald Trump would never win the Republican nomination. It’s pretty revealing what they learned from their mistakes. Let’s look in particular at the mea culpa pieces by Nate Cohn of the New York Times’ feature “The Upshot” and Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. First, admit your mistake True analysts…