I’m angry and sad about the attack in Orlando, like every other thinking person today. But I’m trying to think long-term. Donald Trump isn’t. What’s most at risk in a time of crisis is rational thought. We become prone to knee-jerk, short-term thinking. Leaders must be smarter than that. Donald Trump is not such a…
Policy statements by Hillary Clinton will only alienate the voters she needs. As a result, she won’t talk policy, and of course, Donald Trump won’t either. Which means we’re in for five months of empty talk. Imagine for a moment that you are strategist for the Hillary Clinton campaign. Your base is mainstream Democrats and…
Hillary Clinton has enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination, but Bernie Sanders won’t go away. Does he think he can win? Nah. But the spotlight — and the negotiating leverage that comes with it — are too much fun to give up. As Hillary Clinton and Democratic leaders see it, it’s time for Sanders to go away…
Fixing the climate has a cost. So does failing to fix it. Both costs are huge, but if you believe that climate change is a real phenomenon, then the human and economic costs of inaction are staggering. What justifies failing to act? My analysis reveals that the explanation that many Republicans stand behind — that climate change…
Now that Trump has sewn up the Republican nomination, should conservatives run a different candidate, like Mitt Romney, as a third-party candidate? Based on my analysis, yes. In addition to preserving their concept of the party, such a run actually improves the likelihood of a positive outcome (and decreases the likelihood of a disaster) for…
I’ve said that true analysts find bigger truths when they’re wrong. Smart people predicted Donald Trump would never win the Republican nomination. It’s pretty revealing what they learned from their mistakes. Let’s look in particular at the mea culpa pieces by Nate Cohn of the New York Times’ feature “The Upshot” and Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. First, admit your mistake True analysts…
Ted Cruz is out. Bernie Sanders can’t realistically win. So it’s Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton for the 2016 presidential election. Regardless of what you hear, watch closely, because gender perspectives will drive this election. Conventional campaign policy dictates a pivot toward the center in the general election, in which candidates talk less about policies that energize…
My Boston Globe arrived yesterday with a second, scary front page, dated April 9, 2017, featuring stories from a future Trump presidency. (It’s actually the front of the Sunday op-ed section, an illustration for an op-ed article called “The GOP Must Stop Trump.”) Donald Trump, predictably, responded by calling the paper “stupid.” Having written pretend stories about…
In an unprecedented move in presidential politics, the campaign of Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is preparing to file for bankruptcy. Without Bullshit has gotten access to internal campaign documents that reveal a detailed plan to close the campaign, sell off its assets, and put an end to Trump’s involvement in politics. In a not-yet-released interview with MSNBC’s…