The game theory and political logic of repealing Obamacare

The game theory and political logic of repealing Obamacare

ByJosh Bernoff

Donald Trump tweeted “If Republican Senators are unable to pass what they are working on now, they should immediately REPEAL, and then REPLACE at a later date!” Is it good politics to repeal Obamacare now and replace it later? Let’s analyze using game theory. Here are the facts: Bills in the Senate are subject to…

A Moneyball analysis of Mitch McConnell’s Supreme Court defiance

A Moneyball analysis of Mitch McConnell’s Supreme Court defiance

ByJosh Bernoff

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has vowed not to consider any Supreme Court nominee that President Obama makes. My mathematical analysis shows why: by waiting, McConnell gets a 50% chance of a conservative court, and a 35% chance of an extremely conservative court, for many years to come. This decision is even more important than it…