Financial strategist market forecasts are worthless, but not useless

Financial strategist market forecasts are worthless, but not useless

ByJosh Bernoff

In Sunday’s New York Times, Jeff Sommer complains that financial strategist forecasts for market returns are terrible. They are. But they are a little better than guessing. And they have value nonetheless. Sommer’s critique Sommer thinks the forecasts of economists and financial strategists are way off. Here’s his critique: [T]he stock and bond markets are swinging haphazardly,…

The right way to defend (or attack) the Congressional Budget Office
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The right way to defend (or attack) the Congressional Budget Office

ByJosh Bernoff

The Congressional Budget Office is in the crosshairs for its prediction that the republican health care bills will cause 22 million people to lose health insurance. Eight of the organization’s former leaders wrote a letter to defend it. Who’s right, the CBO’s critics or its defenders? Congress created the CBO in 1974 as an independent,…