Perspective: you cannot have a useful insight without it. We all crave perspective. We go on vacation to the mountains or the beach, just to admire the view. After looking at close-up smartphones, laptops right in front of us, and colleagues in the same room, the simple act of focusing at infinity relaxes us. There’s a long…
I like to do two things at work: figure new things out and explain what I figured out. That’s what makes me an analyst. The way I look at it, ignoring overhead (like filing expense reports and political scheming), people do three useful things at work: Figure new things out. Use knowledge to get things…
When people find out I write books, they often ask, “Do you write fiction?” My answer: “Not on purpose.” I deal in facts. But not all facts come from the same place. Here are the three kinds of facts (plus one kind of non-fact) and how to make sure they’re true. Sourced facts What they…
The number of self-described experts has multiplied along with the slots for them to express their views on blogs, podcasts, Forbes, Huffington Post, LinkedIn, and Medium. It’s great that we now get to hear from a wide variety of thinkers. But the first question you should ask of any of them is, “How do you…
My friend, who used to be a startup CEO, gave a party at her apartment. The party was for her husband and his new book. I don’t know him well, but I do know books, which is one reason I was invited. I have to admit, I have no idea what people mean when they…
A Democrat narrowly won a special election for an open congressional seat in western Pennsylvania. It’s only one election. But as an exercise in analytical thinking, let’s figure out what it could mean. First, the facts. Tim Murphy, the Republican in the 18th congressional district, resigned after his mistress said he’d told her to get…
After Gary Cohn’s departure as Donald Trump’s chief economic advisor, UC Irvine economist Peter Navarro, who has declared Donald Trump’s intuition infallible, is a leading candidate to replace him. There is a challenge for analysts and managers in every organization. On the one hand, they should be dedicated to hard evidence and truth, so that…
When you write a book about ideas, it reflects well on both you and your company. Or at least it ought to. As with all corporate politics, the devil is in the details. I learned much of what you’re about to read while coauthoring three books and editing two others at Forrester Research. Since leaving,…
A little knowledge is dangerously misleading. That’s the message of the Dunning-Kruger effect, in which ignorant people think they’re smart. It’s the message of the Gartner Hype Cycle, in which people get overenthusiastic about new technologies. And it’s the reason that analysts, over and over again, get overenthusiastic about whatever’s new. In 1999, the psychologists…