Audacity ascendant; AI doesn’t think; what writers fear: Newsletter 11 June 2025

Newsletter 98. Why audacity is essential, but arrogance is poisonous. Plus, Apple’s paper shows how AI doesn’t actually reason, Jane Friedman on what writers fear, three people to follow, and three books to read.

Audacity inspires. Arrogance burns out.

I was an arrogant guy. And I’ve worked in some pretty arrogant places.

Startups tend to be arrogant. The people who lead them think they can do anything and aim to change the world.

Technology analysts tend to be arrogant. They do research that allows them to see things no one else can see yet. Their jobs require them to express themselves with absolute confidence. They tell big-company CEOs what to do. Arrogance is natural.

Arrogance is also pretty common for authors. We write whole books about our superior knowledge. We give speeches for big fees in front of large audiences. People ask for our autographs on the first page of the book. So yeah, arrogance tends to fit.

Arrogance came naturally to me. I spent my whole young adulthood being told I was smarter than everyone else, and proving it in competitive environments. Jobs where excellence and extroversion were prized were perfect for reinforcing that arrogance. I wasn’t a complete asshole, but there were definite asshole qualities on display.

The thing is, arrogance is tiring. Arrogance is mostly talking — or even shouting — about what you know and what you believe. Arrogance is believing you’re superior. That takes up a lot of your energy, leaving far too little for other people who matter to you.

Arrogance is hard on other people, and on yourself. I’ve come to regret it. It didn’t play well for an independent consultant who had to be a great and humble listener to get the work. I had to reinvent myself.

There was too much talking and not enough listening. Too much knowing and not enough thinking. It’s exhausting.

But when you subtract the asshole qualities from arrogance, there is still something important left.

Audacity.

Audacity, like arrogance, believes it can accomplish what no one else can.

Audacity, like arrogance, wants to influence a whole lot of people to act and think differently.

But audacity can include listening. There is a lot more we and a lot less I in it. Arrogance wears out. But with the help of a shared vision of the people around you, you can be audacious indefinitely.

Nothing really great gets accomplished without audacity. Audacious people create change. And unlike arrogant people, they attract enthusiastic followers.

I’ve given up arrogance. But audacity: that I’m keeping.

You should, too. Dreams can stay big, even if your ego doesn’t.

News for writers and others who think

A widely cited paper by Apple researchers calls AI hype into question. As Futurism describes it, “the researchers assail the claims of companies like OpenAI that their most advanced models can now ‘reason’ — a supposed capability that the Sam Altman-led company has increasingly leaned on over the past year for marketing purposes — which the Apple team characterizes as merely an ‘illusion of thinking.'” Sounds like we’re cresting the peak of inflated expectations.

The social network X is threatening to sue big companies that it claims are colluding not to advertise on it (Wall Street Journal, gift link). That’s a pretty damning indicator of a lack of actual value in the ads.

More wisdom from Jane Friedman on writers’ fears about AI. “I know what writers fear. They fear that their suffering has been in vain. They fear increased competition by people who are getting away with less work. They fear being cut out of the game by publishers, platforms, and unethical actors who will use technology to displace them. . . . Those who recognize their fear for what it is, and proceed with a purpose that is not changed or affected by AI, they will find a way forward, whether they use the technology or not.”

Chris Bakke points out on X that McKinsey was paid millions to advise Warner to merge with Discovery, change HBO Now to HBO Max to Max and back to HBO Max, and then for Warner to split from Discovery again. Sort of like getting paid to go around and around an oval track for 500 miles, but faster than everyone else, and end up where you started.

David C. Baker relates how he gave a speech to an agency, pointed out that their positioning sucks, and reminded them that he gave them the same advice a decade earlier, which they loved, and then did nothing about. People love to hear about change but when you turn your backs they revert to who they were. Every consultant knows this story. But until now I’ve never seen one actually tell it in public.

Three people to follow

Kristen McLean , longtime analyst of book industry data, now in management at Circana Bookscan

Brooke Warner , publisher of the mission-driven hybrid She Writes Press

Shel Israel author, ghostwriter, O.G. social media whiz, and just an awesome guy

Three books to read

Shoveling $H!t: A Love Story about the Entrepreneur’s Messy Path to Success by Kass Lazerow and Michael Lazerow (Amplify, 2025). The truth about what you have to put up with to be a successful entrepreneur.

Wrong: How Media, Politics, and Identity Drive Our Appetite for Misinformation by Dannagal Young (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2023). How leaders and media use fake news to manipulate and control us.

The Mentally Strong Leader: Build the Habits to Productively Regulate Your Emotions, Thoughts, and Behaviors by Scott Mautz (Peakpoint Press, 2024). Fifty tools to build strong mental muscles.