No one knows if a recession is coming. But that doesn’t stop them from writing about it.

No one knows if a recession is coming. But that doesn’t stop them from writing about it.

The brutal stock downturn and indicators like the bond yield curve are signaling that a recession might be on its way. It must be that time again: Time for economists to make equivocal predictions, and journalists to equivocate madly writing about them. Neil Irwin of The New York Times feature “The Upshot” is here to…

Nate Cohn, Nate Silver describe how they misread Donald Trump
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Nate Cohn, Nate Silver describe how they misread Donald Trump

I’ve said that true analysts find bigger truths when they’re wrong. Smart people predicted Donald Trump would never win the Republican nomination. It’s pretty revealing what they learned from their mistakes. Let’s look in particular at the mea culpa pieces by Nate Cohn of the New York Times’ feature “The Upshot” and Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. First, admit your mistake True analysts…