When you think of government reports, do you expect clarity or doubletalk and jargon? The report on Russia and its influence in our elections, from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper, is brief, direct, and unequivocal. It’s a great study in how to use clear language to persuade. This document is a joint production…
Mark Zuckerberg defended Facebook this weekend regarding the role of fake news in the election. It’s way worse than he says, and he has a lot of work to do to fix it. Ignorance is the biggest problem in our democracy, and Facebook is making it worse. First, let me ask you: was your news…
My Facebook feed is full of people angry at election forecaster Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, declaring him a failure. They’re wrong. Here’s why he was right . . . and why you’re blaming the wrong guy. My argument has three simple points: Nate Silver’s forecast wasn’t wrong, because he didn’t predict a Clinton win. Polling…
I have consistently criticized — and ridiculed — Donald Trump. Now he will be president. Stop crying or cheering for a minute, and consider what might happen next. I have. Like a true analyst, I put emotion aside and make some sober predictions. At the heart of this analysis: Donald Trump is no Republican, and owes nobody anything….
This is a puzzling election to understand, with unconventional candidates, unusual voting patterns, and hundreds of fluctuating polls. One site does the best at tracking the race (as opposed to the candidates and issues): Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com. And one very strange graphic on that site shows exactly what’s happening, what matters, and what’s changing. Here…
FBI director James Comey has now dominated election news with his letters to Congress and to his staff about new developments in the Hillary Clinton email investigation. But the letters are the political equivalent of a rice cake: crunchy, but with no actual nutritional content. First, the sordid background. The FBI is investigating former Congressman Anthony…
Red Sox fans are wicked biased — anything their team does is right, anything the other team does (especially the Yankees) is terrible. This is barely acceptable for sports. It’s a terrible model for politics. But it’s the model millions of voters appear to be stuck in. I call this the “Yankees suck” school of political…
Policy statements by Hillary Clinton will only alienate the voters she needs. As a result, she won’t talk policy, and of course, Donald Trump won’t either. Which means we’re in for five months of empty talk. Imagine for a moment that you are strategist for the Hillary Clinton campaign. Your base is mainstream Democrats and…
After his Super Tuesday wins, it’s likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president. More than in any past election, his choice of VP makes all the difference — not just in electability, but because he might not last a full term. He needs to pick someone less wacko than he is. Super…